If you ask a layperson what they think about sports betting, you will usually hear things like “gambling” and “it’s pointless”. If you ask someone who has already dealt with the topic in more detail, they will throw out “money management” and “value”. This information is just as useful as the information “traffic jam ahead”. All undoubtedly important factors, but personally I still lack a stable framework with which to work.
Therefore, everyone should first be clear about what they want to achieve with sports betting. This clearly requires a goal analysis. Together with the available capital, it should now be clarified whether the goal is even realistic. One simple way is, for example, to divide the desired monthly profit by 30 days. This way you can see what you would have to win on average per day to reach your goal.
Let’s now go down the pyramid of success from the top (profit per month or long-term weather success). Finally, we have to find out on which foundation our success should later be built.
This should be a pyramid:
- long-term success
- profit maximization
- loss minimization
- increase profits
- reduce costs
- Avoid scattering
- increase probability
Here you can see how I imagine the pyramid. Of course, many things overlap when it comes to betting and a direct distinction is not possible. But as a rough overview it should be enough.
Profit maximization through higher individual profit
It sounds silly to say that you win more if you bet more money. But here’s the rub. Let’s say you want to win 900 euros per month. If you break it down to one day, that would be 30 euros in profit per day. In the best case, that would be 30 correct bets per month. Of course, you don’t find a good bet every day and it’s clear that you can’t get every bet right.
Wouldn’t it be better to reduce the number of bets from 30 to a “good” 10 bets per month? I think so! The capital should be adjusted according to the level of risk. Some “experts” are probably shaking their heads at this point, but I’m telling you: quality must replace quantity.
Profit maximization through cost reduction
This section is quickly explained. Avoid betting out of frustration! In the long run, you will not have enough money to compensate for lost bets. I even advise against hedging. Example: You bet on Team X winning at odds of 2.0. After the relatively quick 2:0, the bet is as good as won and the odds drop to around 1.2. You hedge yourself and can’t lose anything more and make a profit of 80 with a stake of 100. There is almost nothing wrong with that, but you steal 20% of your profit from your tip. The next bet, also at odds of 2 and a bet of 100 euros, is a complete disaster. The end result is that you won 80 and now you have lost 100. That’s a loss of 20 euros. Without hedging, the book value would be plus/minus zero. Even profits that are not taken can end up being a loss.
Minimize losses: Avoid diversification
Specialize in certain odds ranges. To keep track of the winning ratio between the score and the odds, it is better to focus on one range of odds right away, for example only bets between 1.8 and 2.2. Give the odds a chance to maintain their probability. Besides, it is difficult to constantly adapt to different odds. If you only bet on one goal, your analysis will become more and more fuzzy over time, as you will be right quite often (even without analysis). Then, if you try 3-way betting again, you will not win pots with the wishy-washy analyses.
Minimize losses: increase probability
3.6 and 3.7 have a lot to do with each other. It should be clear to everyone that odds of 1.1 are correct more often than 4.0. In my opinion, neither is suitable for betting. The odds indicate the probability of occurrence and in the long term (with fair odds) you should be pretty close to plus/minus zero. It is up to each individual to make a profit out of this. Betting is a calculable risk, but it is still a risk and that is why you don’t get 10 1.1s right and then the wrong game comes along. You also don’t get 3-4 odds wrong and by chance every 4th bet is right.
Especially at these two extremes, the win-loss ratio can be your undoing. Therefore, “increasing the probability” is not the same as “decreasing the odds”. You have to find a healthy balance. You can play with odds as low as 1.35. 3 right to wrong is doable. If you get the odds wrong 4-5 times in a row, you should question yourself.